Advanced Stats: A More Realistic PP Fix

by Glen Miller on February 6th, 2012 at 4:43 pm

Speculation has the Rangers trying to add a top-six winger who can help their pitiful power-play ahead of next month’s trade deadline. Some of the names rumored to be on the Rangers wish list are: Bobby Ryan, Shane Doan, Teemu Selanne, Vinny Prospal and Brendan Morrow. Of that group: Ryan is going to cost a princely sum; Doan and Selanne have so far indicated they’d rather stay with their respective clubs; Prospal, while we know he would fit in with the group of guys already here, will turn 37 before the deadline and has cooled off since a strong start; and Morrow may or may not even be available. Fact is it won’t be easy to add someone to boost the team’s PP efficiency nor is there even any guarantee any addition would help in that regard.

The Rangers might instead be forced to either stand pat or make a low risk, moderate reward type of move instead of the big splash many would rather see. If the Rangers truly feel they need to upgrade their man-advantage attack there are other, under-the-radar additions they could make without sacrificing roster players and/or top prospects. This likely won’t be a popular suggestion among Ranger fans but a move in the mold mentioned above would be to acquire Tampa D Marc-Andre Bergeron.

As mentioned in a previous post identifying some of the league’s better defensive defensemen, Bergeron is not considered to be particularly adept at keeping the puck out of his own net. But he does have a track record of producing points on the PP. Over the last four seasons, Bergeron has averaged 5.05 PP P/60 and 1.46 PPG/60.

To contrast, among Rangers who see more than 1:30 of 5-on-4 ice time per game through the All-Star break, Dan Girardi led the club with 4.66 P/60, Brad Richards was 2^nd at 3.74 P/60 and Gaborik was 3^rd with 3.48 P/60.

Of course as I said before, Bergeron can be a liability in his own end. But if we assume he would replace one of Stu Bickell or Steve Eminger, upon his return from injury, in the lineup then how much of a negative would Bergeron’s defensive play be?

Here’s a table showing some of my favorite defensive metrics found on Behind the Net and how Bickell, Eminger and Bergeron have fared through the All-Star break this season.

Without a doubt Bergeron’s excessively high Offensive Zone Start % has inflated his On/Off Ice +/- but on the flip side he’s also opposed a much stronger caliber of opponent than either Bickell or Eminger. There is no discernible evidence in these numbers to show Bergeron is inferior defensively to Bickell or Eminger. The reality is Bickell averages less than 10:00 of ice time while Eminger sees just more than 13:00. Bergeron would likely receive closer to Eminger’s 13:00 but a few of those will probably be with the man-advantage so there shouldn’t be much harm with MAB on the ice.

Now there is some debate over how necessary it is to have a quality PP in the postseason. After all, Boston won the Stanley Cup last year and converted on just 11.4% of their opportunities. That at least begs the question of how good does a team’s PP have to be to go deep in the playoffs.

I looked up the PP efficiency results for each of the last 10 Stanley Cup champions, both in the postseason and in the regular season, beginning in 2000 – 2001. Let’s see if there is any apparent correlation to PP success and postseason glory.

Just five of the last 10 Cup winners boasted a better PP conversion rate in the postseason than they did in the regular season. That’s far from conclusive. Even if we sum the conversion rates (which doesn’t really make sense given the differences in sample size, etc. but) and compare regular season results with postseason rates there is a moderate 5.5 percentage point increase for the playoff squads. It would seem PP success rate, even in the playoffs, is particularly important when it comes to challenging for the championship.

That being said, even if Bergeron’s PP acumen meant the difference between a playoff win and a playoff loss, acquiring him would be well worth it; especially considering the minimal cost to make that deal. I wouldn’t be surprised if sending a young defenseman with size, like Bickell, might be all it would take to get Bergeron and possibly boost a lackluster PP. (Remember though, Bickell would be subject to waivers if his club tried to send him down and with the dearth of quality defensive help he’d almost certainly be claimed and that might reduce his value in a trade). Or the Rangers sit where they are and take their chances with their current roster.

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